The Full Ratchet
Nick Moran
VC investing mechanics, tactics, and strategy.
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Why Silicon Valley's talent magnet is breaking down
the valley became the valley because employees did really well on on early equity, and we're and and that's what attracted a lot of talent into in the young companies. But if your young companies are valued at multi billions billions of dollars and you've got many, many more rounds and, you know, many more many more years to go, kinda tough to see that.
“In particular, small early stage venture capitalists can never make money in hardware.”
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501. Spotting the Next Big Thing, Why This Cycle Is Different, Acceptable vs Unacceptable Risk, and Why Duration Is a Feature Not a Bug (Jon Callaghan)
Jon Callaghan of True Ventures discusses how the current venture cycle differs from previous ones, with startups staying private longer at massive valuations affecting employee equity. He explores True's contrarian approach to emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing, emphasizing the importance of taking calculated risks early in technology cycles.
Recent episodes

Investor Stories 466: Jim Tananbaum, Eric Byunn, and Ben Orthlieb on the Questions LPs Should Be Asking (Tananbaum, Orthlieb, Byunn)

504. American Dynamism: The Future of U.S. Industrials, Backing Companies with Major Production Components, Manufacturing Sovereignty, and Why Space Dominance is Critical (David Ulevitch)

Investor Stories 465: Pricing Too Late, Selling Too Early, Investing Too Fast — Hard Lessons from Top VCs (Ramanujam, Cohen, Orlovski)

Investor Stories 462: Study the Masters, Develop Your Own Eye, and Stop Outsourcing Conviction (Wang, Mohapatra, Banks)
Three experienced investors share advice for new VCs, emphasizing the importance of developing independent conviction rather than following consensus. Key themes include going deeper than surface-level research, building personal instincts, and having confidence to back your own judgment when you find exceptional founders.

Investor Stories 461: Feast and Famine in Crypto, When to Take the Off Ramp, and Evaluating Founder Temperament (Simpson, Chaddha, Orthlieb)
Three prominent VCs discuss the challenges of navigating market cycles, particularly in crypto's boom-bust environment. Key insights include the difficulty of advising founders when to exit during market peaks, managing burn rates during funding downturns, and maintaining founder relationships while providing tough guidance.

Investor Stories 460: The Math Behind Venture Returns, When Sizing Matters More Than Selection, and Growth Over Discounts (Wallach, Okike, Banks)
Three seasoned investors discuss the mathematical realities of venture returns, emphasizing that portfolio construction and position sizing often matter more than picking winners. They explore how the power law nature of venture investing means even experienced investors can't reliably predict which companies will be the big winners.

502. A New Era For Venture: Dynamic Capitalism, Finding Alpha in the AI Cycle, Are Bubbles a Feature or a Bug, and Why the Future for America is Still Bright (Seth Levine)
Seth Levine of Foundry discusses the transformational potential of AI and quantum technologies, comparing the current investment climate to the exciting opportunities of the late 1990s internet boom. The conversation covers venture capital trends, the importance of engaging with diverse perspectives, and systemic challenges in both technology and society.

Investor Stories 459: Inside the Best LP Questions: Getting Better Over Time, Building Networks, and Driving Outcomes (Effron, Austin, Simpson)
Top VCs from Redpoint, Outside VC, and Andreessen Horowitz share insights on the most challenging and thought-provoking questions they've received from LPs and founders. The discussion covers how these questions have shaped their investment approach, particularly around availability, investment timing preferences, and building networks in emerging sectors like AI.

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)
Three veteran VCs share their most painful anti-portfolio stories, including missed opportunities with Netflix (when it was just DVD-by-mail), Palantir (passed due to price sensitivity), and other major deals that got away. The episode explores how investors rationalize misses and what lessons can be learned from deals that seemed logical to pass on at the time.

Investor Stories 457: Lessons for Early Career VCs: Fiduciary Mindset, Power Law Discipline, and Personal Edge (Dash, Okike, Hudson)
Three experienced VCs share essential lessons for early-career investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding power law dynamics in venture returns and developing a fiduciary mindset that balances big swings with practical liquidity decisions. The discussion covers how young investors must embrace failure rates, focus on finding 100x potential rather than safe returns, and identify their unique edge in evaluating people, products, or markets.

501. Spotting the Next Big Thing, Why This Cycle Is Different, Acceptable vs Unacceptable Risk, and Why Duration Is a Feature Not a Bug (Jon Callaghan)
Jon Callaghan of True Ventures discusses how the current venture cycle differs from previous ones, with startups staying private longer at massive valuations affecting employee equity. He explores True's contrarian approach to emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing, emphasizing the importance of taking calculated risks early in technology cycles.

Investor Stories 456: Inside Visionary Leadership: Platform Leverage, Founder Adaptability, and Market Timing (Rizik, Wang, Wallach)
This episode features three VCs discussing key traits of successful founders and evolving investment strategies. They highlight the importance of founder adaptability, unique market perspectives, and the growing trend of platform-driven venture capital with specialized research capabilities.

Investor Stories 455: Lessons Learned: Building Investment Criteria, Missing HubSpot, and Staying True to Your Model (Madera, Agarwal, Bussgang)

Investor Stories 454: When There Are No Good Choices: Navigating Ethical Dilemmas, Founder Splits, and Existential Company Threats (Cohen, Effron, Austin)

500. AI Native VC, Achieving 50%+ Graduation from Seed to Series A, Why Access Is the Key to Success, and Why Network Driven Firms Can No Longer Compete (Ben Orthlieb)

Investor Stories 453: Founder Led Capital Flywheels, Thoughtful Reserve Strategies, and Long Term Fund Design (York, Hsieh, Ramanujam)
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