20VC: 50% of Funds Will Go Out of Business | Why Growth Expectations Today are BS and Will Not Last | Why Oren Zeev Takes $0 Management Fees But 30% Carry | Why GPs Should Not Tell LPs Their Strategy

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC)The Twenty Minute VC (20VC)Oren ZeevFeb 2, 20261h 8min

Oren Zeev delivers a masterclass in contrarian fund management, arguing that traditional VC economics are fundamentally broken and that 50% of funds will go out of business. His radical approach—taking zero management fees while claiming 30% carry and being the largest LP in his own funds—challenges every orthodoxy about how venture capital should work and creates unprecedented GP-LP alignment.

Key takeaways

  • Management fees often exceed carry economics for GPs, creating misaligned incentives where a $10B fund generates $200M in fees before any returns.
  • Every investment decision should filter through AI impact—companies that are neutral or victims of AI disruption should be automatic rejections.
  • Operational complexity serves as a moat against AI disruption, while simple software businesses face existential replacement risk.
  • True skin in the game means GPs shouldn't see any compensation until LPs receive 100% of their capital back, eliminating the appearance versus substance problem.
  • Being the largest LP in your own fund while maintaining significant carry percentage creates radical alignment that traditional fund structures can't match.

The essay

The venture capital industry's fee structure creates a perverse incentive that most investors refuse to acknowledge: general partners make more money from management fees than from actual returns. Oren Zeev has built his entire investment philosophy around rejecting this dynamic, taking zero management fees while claiming 30% carry and putting his own money where his mouth is.

Zeev, founder of Zeev Ventures, operates under a radical compensation model that flips traditional GP economics. "The compensation that the GP gets from the management fee is typically greater than the upside," Zeev argues. "Let's say you have $10 billion and you charge 2%. The minute you close the fund, you already made $200 million." This guaranteed income stream, he believes, fundamentally misaligns incentives between GPs and their limited partners.

His solution is extreme alignment through skin in the game. "I'm the biggest LP in every one of my funds. About 13, 14%. And I don't have any LP who's more than 10%. And on top of it, I have 30% carry. So really, I'm 40 something percent of the economics." But here's the crucial detail that makes this more than financial theater: "Despite being an LP, I don't actually get paid until the LPs got 100% of their money back. I don't see a shekel, a dollar before they see the money back."

This structure forces Zeev to optimize purely for fund performance rather than asset accumulation. When your personal wealth depends entirely on generating returns rather than raising larger funds, every investment decision changes. The industry's obsession with fund size and fee generation becomes irrelevant when you're betting your own capital first.

The current venture landscape makes this alignment even more critical. Zeev has developed a simple but ruthless framework for evaluating companies in the AI era: "Every investment I have to ask myself, is this company a likely beneficiary of AI or not? If the answer is that they're a victim of AI, obviously it's an easy answer. But even if the answer is neutral, still the answer is probably no." This binary test reflects how AI is reshaping entire categories of software businesses.

The key insight here isn't just about AI adoption, but about operational complexity as a moat. Simple software businesses face existential threats from AI-powered competitors that can build faster and cheaper. "If you have a piece of software that's fairly simple, then someone can write it quickly and maybe price it lower and have better functionality. Those companies are at risk. But the more operationally complex the business is, the harder it's gonna be," Zeev explains.

This framework explains why pure software plays without deep operational integration are becoming increasingly risky bets. AI doesn't just threaten coding jobs; it threatens entire business models built on software that lacks operational complexity. Companies that combine software with logistics, compliance, or physical world integration maintain defensibility that pure digital plays cannot.

The broader implications extend beyond individual investment decisions to fund strategy itself. Zeev's model suggests that the venture industry's growth expectations and fee structures are fundamentally unsustainable. When GPs can collect hundreds of millions in management fees regardless of performance, they optimize for fundraising rather than returns. This creates a system where appearance matters more than substance, fund sizes inflate beyond optimal deployment capacity, and LPs essentially pay GPs to experiment with their capital.

The market is already showing cracks. Zeev predicts that "50% of funds will go out of business" as the current growth expectations prove unrealistic and LPs demand better alignment. His zero-fee, high-carry model represents one path forward, but it requires GPs to actually believe in their ability to generate returns rather than simply collect fees.

For founders, this shift means evaluating potential investors not just on brand and network, but on their actual incentive structures. A GP taking zero management fees and significant personal exposure to fund performance will behave very differently than one collecting guaranteed fees from a $2 billion fund. The questions become: Is your investor's wealth tied to your success, or to their ability to raise the next fund?

For limited partners, Zeev's model demonstrates that radical alignment is possible, but it requires giving up the comfort of predictable fee structures and betting on GPs who are willing to put their own capital at risk. The next few years will test whether the market rewards this substance over appearance, or if the industry continues optimizing for scale over performance.

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