Discover/Invisible Ink

Ep 82 - Valuation is a (Financial) Story, Here’s How to Get it Right, With Dan Gray

Invisible InkNov 2, 20251h 10min

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9:33· 29sPractical Framework

Whatever you need to get to that point, plus obviously, like, a little buffer because you can never predict exactly how much you'll need, but preferably not much more because you don't wanna take dilution unnecessarily. And then once you hit that milestone, this is really what investors want. They want you to come to raise money having just derisked something and looking for money to then grow. They don't like you coming to them and saying, we need money to derisk this thing.

9:33 / 10:01

But whatever you need to get to that point, plus obviously, like, a little buffer because you can never predict exactly how much you'll need, but preferably not much more because you don't wanna take dilution unnecessarily. And then once you hit that milestone, this is really what investors want. They want you to come to raise money having just derisked something and looking for money to then grow. They don't like you coming to them and saying, we need money to derisk this thing.

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Invisible Ink

Consequences

Quite often, it might be that they give up too much equity early on, and then they struggle later in the life of the company. You know, they may get to the point where they have, like, real intensive CapEx later on if they're building something, and suddenly to raise the money for that part of the process, is a lot more expensive than they can manage.

Explains a specific failure mode for deep tech founders with clear cause-and-effect. The sequential logic (equity dilution → CapEx needs → expensive later rounds) makes this educational and shareable.

2:59 - 3:1718s

Invisible Ink

Practical Framework

Lots of people think of valuation either as a financial calculation. So you put in your financials and it outputs a number magically that is the perfect value for your company. Or they think of it as a market driven process where it's investors bidding against each other and if you're a more popular company, the valuation will raise higher.

Sets up the two common misconceptions about valuation before introducing the 'story' framework. The 'magically' language makes complex finance concepts accessible and quotable.

5:30 - 5:5020s

Invisible Ink

Practical Framework

Whatever you need to get to that point, plus obviously, like, a little buffer because you can never predict exactly how much you'll need, but preferably not much more because you don't wanna take dilution unnecessarily. And then once you hit that milestone, this is really what investors want. They want you to come to raise money having just derisked something and looking for money to then grow. They don't like you coming to them and saying, we need money to derisk this thing.

This provides a clear, actionable framework for fundraising timing and positioning. The contrarian insight that investors want to fund growth, not risk reduction, is both counterintuitive and immediately useful to founders.

9:33 - 10:0129s

Invisible Ink

Practical Framework

Ideally, it wouldn't really. You know, in in a perfect world, founders wouldn't have to worry about that and VCs would have to take care of it. But, like, there are I think that you're right. There are a few considerations. So the main one is, like, maybe more of a timing thing than a than a construction thing, but usually better to try and raise money from a VC that has recently raised a fund rather than one that's in like year three or year four.

Provides tactical timing advice for fundraising based on VC fund cycles. The contrast between 'perfect world' and reality, plus the specific timing guidance, makes this actionable.

26:18 - 26:4224s

Invisible Ink

Bold/Contrarian

I think reputation isn't a great signal in venture capital generally speaking, but maybe for this, it it is. It has some benefits. Like, if I think about the obvious names in, like, contrarian deep tech investing, it might be, like, fifteen seventeen, Kantos, Long Journey. There there's quite a few, but those are actually legitimately great firms. And one of the hallmarks of a great firm is that they've lasted for a long time.

Directly challenges the conventional wisdom about VC reputation while providing specific firm examples. The contrarian opening 'reputation isn't a great signal' creates immediate engagement hook.

39:45 - 40:1126s

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