Discover/Venture Unlocked/Platform Shifts, AI, and the Future of C...

VCs reveal the career-killing risk of making non-consensus bets

Venture Unlocked · Platform Shifts, AI, and the Future of Consumer Investing

“There's the folks that everyone's going to agree with.”

26:04 / 26:42

It's easier to raise that next fund. And that becomes this internal challenge of if I do non consensus, what happens if the company doesn't take off right away? Is there gonna be fallen capital? How do you think about that? And maybe in your minds, really work around that, you know, sort of reality.

Yeah. We call it gifted TVPI and earned TVPI. There's the folks that everyone's going to agree with. And look, obviously, like Martin Casado had that tweet that went viral and also caused a lot of conversation on VC Twitter. I think it's a lot safer for your VC career to be consensus. And if you

About this clip

A discussion about the internal pressures VCs face when making contrarian investments, exploring the concept of 'gifted TVPI vs earned TVPI' and how consensus investing is safer for VC careers. The speakers reference Martin Casado's viral tweet about the tension between playing it safe and making bold, non-consensus bets that may not pay off immediately.

Why this clip

This clip exposes the uncomfortable truth about how career incentives can drive VCs toward safer, consensus investments rather than truly contrarian bets.

26:04 - 26:4238scontrarian take

consensus-investing vc-career-risk non-consensus-bets

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What they said next

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