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17 results for “investment cycles”
...the different cycles, the economy cannot weaken without asset prices weakening, particularly stocks weaken for that long. Like, that divergence does not exist. It can exist for six months. It can exist for nine months, maybe twelve months. But by and
18:04 / 19:25
from transcript18:04 – 19:25
...looking at cycles first, I you know, it's worth emphasizing that if you take very long term data, there does tend to be a pretty good relationship between cycles and economies and cycles in financial markets like equities.
1:29 / 2:41
from transcript1:29 – 2:41
...investments in, and then China came on the scene and became clear we need to make those investments. And that happened over that decade. But that repricing, rerating was a violent process economy and into the new economy. Right. Why? Because it was c
14:48 / 16:09
from transcript14:48 – 16:09
...market cycles, even big crippling bear markets. There's always this intent of whenever there's a big bear market or recession to point figures and say, who screwed up? Who's the policymaker? Who's the politician? Who's to blame for this? And I think
17:19 / 18:22
from transcript17:19 – 18:22
...cycles and economies and cycles in financial markets like equities. You know, if you go back to the middle of the nineteenth century, there have been about 35 recessions in The US, for example. And roughly the same number of bear markets in The US eq
2:08 / 3:26
from transcript2:08 – 3:26
...cycles, even big crippling bear markets. There's always this intent of whenever there's a big bear market or recession to point figures and say, who screwed up? Who's the policymaker? Who's the politician? Who's to blame for this? And I think if you
16:22 / 17:46
from transcript16:22 – 17:46
...of big investment shifts is that enthusiasm that drives the shift often produces a boom bust cycle with early investors acting as the unwitting investors acting as the unwitting subsidizers of the technology shift. Railroad's another classic example
0:05 / 1:05
from transcript0:05 – 1:05
...CapEx cycles. No. You do them when their interest rates are high. Because the interest rates are high, they're telling you, you need to put money into the ground. And so we're moving into one of these repricing towards asset heavy industries, which i
14:12 / 15:15
from transcript14:12 – 15:15
not that big a deal. So at some point, five years or ten years from now, will we look back on today and say, yeah. It was challenging. It was bad, but we've advanced and the world has moved on. So that's the other thing just to have a little bit of p
34:21 / 36:00
from transcript34:21 – 36:00
And you look at the history, you can say there's certain things that have always existed, speculation, booms and busts, insider trading, all these things. But going back to your comment earlier about factors, you know, when I was a young pup, you kno
39:49 / 40:51
from transcript39:49 – 40:51
All cycles, they're different, and they are few and far between these days. I do believe in cycles. Predicting the timing of cycles is impossible. As I look at the world today, there are lots of manifestations of what I'll call late cycle behavior an
32:55 / 34:00
from transcript32:55 – 34:00
...investment opportunity. And then you have the two thousand recession, but of course, 09/11 played a role in that. What it means is the best opportunity for distressed has been microcycles. Go back during just my career and Scott's career when the mun
26:14 / 27:18
from transcript26:14 – 27:18
start to justify things on various bank shots ideas the narrative. Yeah. And that's that's just sort of like it's like a behavioral sign that maybe people are starting to get over their skis a bit. I think this has been one of the least enthusiastic
40:28 / 41:30
from transcript40:28 – 41:30
So, therefore, what we are in is we are in a situation where liquidity continues to grow, but I think it begins to grow at the lesser and lesser rate. And that's when the bubbles become dangerous. So I think at some point in '25, it will burst. As yo
9:06 / 10:07
from transcript9:06 – 10:07
...has been microcycles. Go back during just my career and Scott's career when the muni market got blown up because of some choice words said by a famous analyst after the financial crisis, even the European kind of double dip recession in the periphera
27:00 / 28:11
from transcript27:00 – 28:11
patterns at at different points on the cycle, but generally, all stocks will will follow the cycle through time. In my career, there's been some fantastic examples of companies that were people thought were fan I I mean, I've mentioned pets.com befor
6:47 / 7:52
from transcript6:47 – 7:52
That was a very different world where people were kind of, like, you know, buying, you know, optionality, creating gamma squeezes, the Reddit boards, Wall Street bats, all that jazz. Now that you're kind of settling into this world, we've been condit
10:23 / 11:44
from transcript10:23 – 11:44
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