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11 results for “survivorship bias”
“Why most serial entrepreneurs fail: the survivorship bias trap”
...is survivorship bias. Like, I think one of the reasons you don't see that many serial people is that they usually get killed by survivorship bias. Meaning, hey. I've done this thing, therefore, I can
5:45 / 6:06
contrarian take5:45 – 6:06
“If you knew which startups would win, why invest in losers?”
that I've run into because there's a certain win rate you're gonna have on any individual investment. And I I do believe it's just hard to know in advance. You do your best, but it's hard to know what
1:40 / 2:13
framework1:40 – 2:13
So there's a branch of sexual selection called mutual sexual selection and the the black swans are an advanced example of this. The the classic selection is, yeah, your peacocks and your lions and things like this. Males are bigger and more flamboyan
2:09:32 / 2:10:48
from transcript2:09:32 – 2:10:48
“Why portfolio construction matters more than picking winners in venture”
everyone should recognize this because there are, as everyone knows, very few big winners in any portfolio. And of course, if you knew which ones were gonna be those in advance, why did you do all the
1:59 / 2:34
framework1:59 – 2:34
you're dominant in contest particularly with conspecifics. If you're trying to win a territory or win mating rights, bigger things usually beat up smaller things. So there's gonna be selection favoring them. But then big things don't usually do well
1:23:13 / 1:24:29
from transcript1:23:13 – 1:24:29
“Why young VCs struggle with the harsh reality of startup failure rates”
the power law concept basically describes this idea that a very small number of companies generate the vast majority of returns of our asset class. And that's been true across cycles, across decades,
4:00 / 4:33
framework4:00 – 4:33
...is survivorship bias. Like, I think one of the reasons you don't see that many serial people is that they usually get killed by survivorship bias. Meaning, hey. I've done this thing, therefore, I can do these other things. And, you know, so so often,
5:45 / 7:00
from transcript5:45 – 7:00
...a lot of survivorship bias here. I suspect that Bernard did have a view that almost nobody else had, which was that both that luxury brands and particularly, like, Louis Vuitton and Leathergood luxury brands could get bigger than anyone imagined, and
3:07:25 / 3:08:32
from transcript3:07:25 – 3:08:32
...bias? Some founder led companies have done really well, and we remember all of those. Some flame out, and no one talks about them, etcetera. I'm curious what patterns or anti patterns you observe. Okay. Well, first of all, it's all survivorship bias.
30:00 / 31:04
from transcript30:00 – 31:04
...that survivorship bias, the ones who have made it have made it because they've outperformed, does that tell you they're gonna continue to outperform? There's a lot of structural advantages
15:41 / 17:00
from transcript15:41 – 17:00
...well, that survivorship bias, the ones who have made it have made it because they've outperformed, does that tell you they're gonna continue to outperform? There's a lot of structural advantages in continuity from one fund to the next. So I don't thi
16:30 / 17:44
from transcript16:30 – 17:44
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