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15 results for “non consensus bets”
“VCs reveal the career-killing risk of making non-consensus bets”
...if I do non consensus, what happens if the company doesn't take off right away? Is there gonna be fallen capital? How do you think about that? And maybe in your minds, really work around that, you kno
26:04 / 26:42
contrarian take26:04 – 26:42
...bets, but, you know, generally speaking, there isn't gold lying on the ground. Right? Like, generally speaking, there aren't tons of obvious opportunities to make money from these markets. So I will just say one of the big debates is whether or not t
3:45 / 4:46
from transcript3:45 – 4:46
...on Twist Bets, and we now have all the wagers starting to come up. You can pull that page up and we'll see, where these things wind up. But we have the unemployment rate bet. That's gonna come due at some point. And, oh, wow. That's we we have to mak
2:14 / 3:17
from transcript2:14 – 3:17
There's been a couple, like, pretty important landmark cases of Web two prediction market companies like Calshi. But I think that it's going to be very difficult for traditional sports betting platforms to compete with prediction markets at scale. Th
30:41 / 31:48
from transcript30:41 – 31:48
And where where does it become an issue of taste, morality Right. Other pieces? And it is interesting because I think it's I think society has largely agreed we're okay with sports betting. We're okay with even political betting. We're okay with casi
35:13 / 36:21
from transcript35:13 – 36:21
...investments, not bets. So as investments, you would not get hit by this new gambling tax. I don't know if you saw that where they're gonna put a tax on gambling winnings. And so it used to be you just netted out. Okay. I made a 100,000. I lost 90,000
56:13 / 57:17
from transcript56:13 – 57:17
...bets that don't change the thing, and you really are very vulnerable to person betting on something that they can control either themselves or through someone else. So I think super interesting bets. God, I wish I was in one because it's interesting.
1:26:09 / 1:27:18
from transcript1:26:09 – 1:27:18
that you can trade across anything. So I can go long Nvidia, but I can also go short the NIX. And then I can own some Bitcoin all in the same trade. Totally. That's where it's going. Totally. Totally. Now to the earlier question, Jay Cal, I think if
24:44 / 25:49
from transcript24:44 – 25:49
than you actually made, and, there's a whole bunch of back and forth on it. But there's some speculation that the prediction markets are excluded from this, and then the casinos would then take the brunt of this with their big players, who have to ne
57:01 / 58:01
from transcript57:01 – 58:01
...day old anonymous Polymarket account correctly predicted 17 out of 20 halftime show bets, including the special appearances by Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, but it only profited 17 k, a tiny amount. And then another account created less than twenty four h
19:29 / 20:33
from transcript19:29 – 20:33
...the first few bets that you place. So one thing that a lot of people do that's really quite silly in my opinion is, you know, you go into a book and you bet a bunch of stuff that's pretty obviously a really smart bet. You know, if you open up an acco
17:10 / 18:23
from transcript17:10 – 18:23
...me. We've done bets before. I'm up, whatever it is, fifty or seventy five grand. Yep. Choose. I gotta I gotta whittle it down. You gotta whittle it down, baby. What's your bet gonna be? What's my bet? Yeah. Like, what what do you think we should bet
1:21:00 / 1:22:01
from transcript1:21:00 – 1:22:01
...of yes and no bets on will certain people be in the Google top five most searched people. They bet yes for Pope Leo, 174 k profit. They bet no on Zoran Mandami, the mayor elect of New York City, plus 45 k. They bet no, Donald Trump, plus one seventy
26:50 / 28:00
from transcript26:50 – 28:00
wager money you can afford to lose, and, try not to get caught up with the Gambino family collecting your debts because that's not gonna be a fair way to lose. On the over unders, very specifically, because all of this is legal and not run through bo
18:00 / 19:01
from transcript18:00 – 19:01
And the problem is you have state gambling commissions, and we have a state by state kind of patchwork of regulatory authority that makes it very hard to standardize, track, and provide also guidance and feedback. I would much rather see this all kin
20:57 / 22:14
from transcript20:57 – 22:14
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