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18 results for “market cycles”
Concept2 mentions across episodes
market cycles
...market cycles, even big crippling bear markets. There's always this intent of whenever there's a big bear market or recession to point figures and say, who screwed up? Who's the policymaker? Who's the politician? Who's to blame for this? And I think
17:19 / 18:22
from transcript17:19 – 18:22
...cycles, even big crippling bear markets. There's always this intent of whenever there's a big bear market or recession to point figures and say, who screwed up? Who's the policymaker? Who's the politician? Who's to blame for this? And I think if you
16:22 / 17:46
from transcript16:22 – 17:46
...market. And second, it was a total return opportunity, not yield because
32:55 / 34:00
from transcript32:55 – 34:00
...CapEx cycles. No. You do them when their interest rates are high. Because the interest rates are high, they're telling you, you need to put money into the ground. And so we're moving into one of these repricing towards asset heavy industries, which i
14:12 / 15:15
from transcript14:12 – 15:15
call it o two through, like, o four time period, and that's what we coined the term revenge of the old economy. Old economy is asset heavy. New economy is asset light. And that asset light in the late nineties, February was really about the scalabili
14:48 / 16:09
from transcript14:48 – 16:09
...the market as a whole is saying, we're not sure how this is gonna see through. People who can think about the asset side and the liability side, restructuring and what companies are worth together, get a chance to kick it through that microcycle. We
28:25 / 29:33
from transcript28:25 – 29:33
...the market is technically very strong, the catalyst is not gonna change the momentum. So what that means in, you know, more specifically, you know? So when you look at the trend investors, you know, they have a range of signals, you know. Like so the
10:25 / 11:31
from transcript10:25 – 11:31
...and economies and cycles in financial markets like equities.
1:29 / 2:41
from transcript1:29 – 2:41
And then once it's figured out kind of what it likes or what works, then there's a huge downswing, right? So that's consolidation or businesses going out of business, bankrupt or whatever it is. And so you get this pattern of up and down. And, that's
32:55 / 34:02
from transcript32:55 – 34:02
...and cycles in financial markets like equities. You know, if you go back to the middle of the nineteenth century, there have been about 35 recessions in The US, for example. And roughly the same number of bear markets in The US equity market, bear mar
2:08 / 3:26
from transcript2:08 – 3:26
...a 100 markets around the world, and they get pretty esoteric quick. They may trade Japanese bonds, or they may trade palm oil, or they may trade, you know, the Swiss franc, on and on.
24:05 / 25:05
from transcript24:05 – 25:05
...market after the other was beginning to lag and falling behind, and that's another indication of a late cycle phenomenon when, the focus of the money is on lesser and lesser and fewer and fewer instruments.
3:43 / 4:51
from transcript3:43 – 4:51
...the fold. The cycles of tension between fear and greed, and we're very much in greed mode now. There's tremendous complacency. You see it in spreads. Spreads are super tight. They're tighter now than they were before the GFC in the investment grade w
37:26 / 38:34
from transcript37:26 – 38:34
...market that says stocks are cheap. Right? They all say they're expensive, and usually it's like 90 to 99 percentile. But as an example, the one we often talk about because it's discussed a lot in the media is the ten year p ratio, the cape ratio, whi
4:34 / 5:42
from transcript4:34 – 5:42
...So the market's sorting out what it likes. And then once it's figured out kind of what it likes or what works, then there's a huge downswing, right? So that's consolidation or businesses going out of business, bankrupt or whatever it is. And so you g
32:10 / 33:20
from transcript32:10 – 33:20
...market. You have vacancy rates that are historically at levels that you don't see for these periods of time. You see when rates have dipped for a little bit of time, you get extra activity right away. We think the housing market, which is everything
32:54 / 34:03
from transcript32:54 – 34:03
...starts rallying back, start buying short dated calls, and dealers get short those calls and go short gamut the other way. You know, those flows and, you know, frankly, you know, a world of, you know, not just this market structure that feeds momentum
25:29 / 26:36
from transcript25:29 – 26:36
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