Searching...
19 results for “market cycles”
Concept2 mentions across episodes
market cycles
...and stock market sold off three or 4% last week, etcetera. The good news, Jason, is that GDP growth for q four looks pretty hot. We're at about 67% chance of another rate cut in December. It's only a month away. Hyperscaler earnings for q three, pret
25:18 / 26:30
from transcript25:18 – 26:30
...market to that market every single day, and the market's going in the wrong direction. He has no problem adjusting very, very quickly.
17:56 / 19:02
from transcript17:56 – 19:02
there is a kind of, in the West conception of Chinese culture, Chinese economy that everything is usually fifty, hundred, two hundred years out. You have this long vision. But you're basically saying that there's a deep, in the business sector, impat
39:44 / 40:49
from transcript39:44 – 40:49
...markets tend always to underestimate the ability of people to adapt in the face of a crisis. And so, you know, whatever life throws at us over the next ten, fifteen years, I think we have to remember people are very good at adapting when the world, t
43:28 / 44:49
from transcript43:28 – 44:49
...markets are very robust, as you mentioned earlier. Public markets set good marks for people that want to sell assets, but also give people confidence in buying assets that they're buying into a strong economy and strong times ahead and not weaker tim
9:40 / 10:54
from transcript9:40 – 10:54
...be cycles, there will be up and downs. And so these very short termist thinking and opportunistic way of driving business will ultimately fail. It is it's bad for China that we're having a sustained economic, softness sustained economic softness, but
40:25 / 41:32
from transcript40:25 – 41:32
...one side's gonna win the argument. It's either gonna be a recession. We'll break out, and we'll have two quarters of negative growth in a row. And, you know, the stock market will correct a bit, or we're gonna have this choppiness until people get co
26:11 / 27:27
from transcript26:11 – 27:27
Now The US is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerate. Ted, I feel like I haven't done enough prep because I wish I'd coined the phrase human steepener. I wish I was clever enough to come up with a metaphor o
12:42 / 13:48
from transcript12:42 – 13:48
...markets having returned amazing amounts the past fifteen years, like sentiment very dour in certain areas. How do you guys kind of think about the squishier side of economics? You know, the people, the behavioral side, the sentiment side, you know, s
20:21 / 21:25
from transcript20:21 – 21:25
There's not gonna be free money, so stocks are not gonna go crazy because the economy is healthy and GDP strong. Yes. So in one case, you get cheaper money because the economy is weaker. In the other case, you get consumers and enterprises that are s
45:00 / 45:59
from transcript45:00 – 45:59
...market, and you can see how this swapped yet again. So this to me shows that the poly market betting is incredibly responsive to news events on a very sober basis. And I think it's pretty good to see. You know? Yeah. I mean, there's the majority chan
43:57 / 45:25
from transcript43:57 – 45:25
And The US consumer has a strong balance sheet because house prices are going up, stock prices are going up, And the Chinese consumer has two thirds of his savings in real estate, and the real estate is going down. So that's why he is not spending. H
24:37 / 25:53
from transcript24:37 – 25:53
...the markets have just had the Uno Verts car dropped to us. But The US was doing massive fiscal spending. China and Europe were not. Now The US is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerate. Ted, I feel like I ha
11:50 / 13:22
from transcript11:50 – 13:22
...that markets are currently pricing that in. Secondly, we've got really, as a consequence, I would say, of the financial crisis and the monetary policy response, which inflated asset values, but kept wages down. We've got a growing populist politics t
56:54 / 58:03
from transcript56:54 – 58:03
...about the broader labor market, and I think that's natural.
34:18 / 35:47
from transcript34:18 – 35:47
...is pulling forward a lot of what they expect to be delivered over the next one, two, three, four years. Mhmm. And so that's a that's a pretty prime macro environment. Now geopolitics, much tougher. We're moving back to a multipolar world, and the ris
18:37 / 19:50
from transcript18:37 – 19:50
It strikes me that a lot of the news out of the Eurozone, including Germany but also beyond it, is just lots of unhappiness and instability, governments changing, people being unhappy, economic performance not being where or governments wanted to go
16:34 / 17:36
from transcript16:34 – 17:36
Our own portfolio was performing, really well. I think others were performing really well. We've been just on the heels of '24, very active on new deals. We'd invested about $4,000,000,000 in our US franchise and returned, about $5,000,000,000 in tha
3:02 / 4:16
from transcript3:02 – 4:16
Have a podcast?
Run your podcast through Clypt
Get ranked clips, hooks, and ready-to-post copy from your own episodes. Free to try.