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19 results for “market correction”
Concept3 mentions across episodes
Market correction
...market, basically, at all time highs, and in the long end of the bond market with real yields and nominal yields, basically, and cyclical highs, you'd expect those markets to reflect, the weaker economic conditions ahead. We had, I'd say, a moment of
3:06 / 4:07
from transcript3:06 – 4:07
taking a step back in terms of the macro environment. Like, we have been in a late cycle. We are in a late cycle environment, by which I mean, the economy, you know, the economy has grown for a while. The unemployment rate's relatively low. There was
2:08 / 3:21
from transcript2:08 – 3:21
And that has probably aborted many of the recession pointing indicators as, not being valid. You know? That's why so many indicators have been wrong. So we have, of course, the employment situation is softening. I see that also, but we are not at the
10:35 / 11:47
from transcript10:35 – 11:47
That's a pretty good way to deter trade action and and tariffs. And I think we saw that in the negotiations with The US, but that could be relevant for other economies that try to impose tariffs on China. So I think the goods producing sector is stil
44:15 / 45:16
from transcript44:15 – 45:16
...the job market, I mean, that's clearly slowing down. You look at residential construction employment. I mean, that's actually down against last year. You know, this I mean, service sector I mean, the other thing, of course, is that if the tariff when
12:45 / 13:48
from transcript12:45 – 13:48
Yesterday, we got the ISM manufacturing, and it showed that electrical components have now been in shortage for fifty straight months, so over four years. So it seems to me that regardless of, you know, if you have this impulse to build more here, et
21:44 / 22:46
from transcript21:44 – 22:46
...of the labor market softening. And even yesterday, you know, we already mentioned the ISM, but we had PMIs as well that also looked kind of sluggish. Is there a possibility that the economy weakens significantly into 2025? Well, I would say that, the
23:10 / 24:20
from transcript23:10 – 24:20
Their perceptions of what a safety net needs to be for them, that rainy day fund is going to change, and their willingness to spend out of savings is going to change, or or even spend out of regular income. All of that would suggest less energy. That
7:22 / 8:31
from transcript7:22 – 8:31
...to collapse. I mean, a recession is a labor market event. Don't forget that. Soft data does not make a recession. So you're gonna need to see a May and June print of nonfarm payrolls that is in freefall. You're gonna need to see mass layoffs over the
12:51 / 13:52
from transcript12:51 – 13:52
So what's gonna happen here over the next couple of weeks and months? So just on the recession question, and I'd like to give an answer to Ezra and Larry. I think that, and I've said this for about a year, it was clear to me that we were sneakily in
1:02:59 / 1:04:04
from transcript1:02:59 – 1:04:04
...and market sell off and all those bad things that create a negative wealth effect, which in the short term help get the disinflation to get the Fed cuts Right.
21:00 / 22:15
from transcript21:00 – 22:15
...marketplace. It is true we've ratcheted down tariffs for countries ex China. But as you say, we've basically gone back to what we were worried about before. Right? And the funny thing I gotta say about that Goldman note, and it just underscores how q
4:26 / 5:35
from transcript4:26 – 5:35
...Market are strongly betting against a recession this year. I think the number's at about 8%. So it appears that most people still feel like the economy's doing well. And remember, we just had a 3.3% GDP growth rate for q two. So I I'd be surprised if
53:59 / 55:02
from transcript53:59 – 55:02
And The US consumer has a strong balance sheet because house prices are going up, stock prices are going up, And the Chinese consumer has two thirds of his savings in real estate, and the real estate is going down. So that's why he is not spending. H
24:37 / 25:53
from transcript24:37 – 25:53
...markets because it showed the Fed's hand with respect to its reaction function. It really valued the labor markets over inflation and did not want to sacrifice this soft landing. And, again, that generates better growth out turns and higher inflation
9:37 / 10:50
from transcript9:37 – 10:50
...just the importance of the ISM print Yeah. For markets
28:24 / 29:30
from transcript28:24 – 29:30
way from migration restrictions, deportations, sudden stop of growth in the labor force. That's gonna give American workers more bargaining power in the short term. That's gonna create labor shortages, which put upward pressure on wages. That's going
45:00 / 45:59
from transcript45:00 – 45:59
...the market is in this churning back and forth, waiting and seeing, trying to figure out if this tips the economy into a a a negative light. But I will just say so what's the positive on here? I would say two big positives or maybe three big positives
9:40 / 10:46
from transcript9:40 – 10:46
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