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12 results for “market analysis”
So you really have to, you know, get in get in the the the habit of being an analyst, a forecaster, a prognosticator, thinking about the big trends, but also thinking about all of the competing things going on, interest rates, inflation, etcetera, th
5:08 / 6:20
from transcript5:08 – 6:20
Michael Malbison, and he had a recent paper, we'll put in the show note links, called Bayes and Bayes Rates, where he does what you're talking about. You know, he says how history can be our guide. And and the example that he gave and I'll read a quo
7:30 / 8:38
from transcript7:30 – 8:38
“Why finance people resist new tools even when they hate Excel”
they use Excel, but they want to replace it. Finance people want to stay with Excel because it's more just a tool. This is part of their even skills. Right? The finance person, one of the things that
15:48 / 16:28
market insight15:48 – 16:28
the most important driver of stocks is that stream of cash flows, is earnings. Mhmm. And if you break those apart, the most important driver of those cash flows is usually The US economy. So we rely very heavily on Jan's forecast. So in terms of Jan'
7:26 / 8:38
from transcript7:26 – 8:38
...financial markets. And in our personal lives, we've kinda turned it over to crowd crowd wisdom. Right? I mean, you pick a restaurant based on Yelp reviews. You decide what to watch on Netflix based on Rotten Tomatoes. You know? We don't read restaura
54:02 / 55:10
from transcript54:02 – 55:10
...of the market like a stock as a discounted stream of future cash flows. And from that perspective, the most important driver of stocks is that stream of cash flows, is earnings. Mhmm. And if you break those apart, the most important driver of those c
6:41 / 7:47
from transcript6:41 – 7:47
Their perceptions of what a safety net needs to be for them, that rainy day fund is going to change, and their willingness to spend out of savings is going to change, or or even spend out of regular income. All of that would suggest less energy. That
7:22 / 8:31
from transcript7:22 – 8:31
...both the analysis that you're going on now, but but a window into that process. And so, you know, how does someone, a large professional investor like yourself, think about this time of year and and, specifically, what are you looking at now, and and
2:59 / 4:02
from transcript2:59 – 4:02
...analysis on the premium for growth. When analysts came to me in the 2022 and said, hey. This stock is cheap. It's back at pre COVID multiples. I instinctively knew pre COVID wasn't cheap multiples for growth. But by late twenty twenty two, as you wer
22:25 / 23:31
from transcript22:25 – 23:31
...What is regression analysis? It tells you the future is gonna be like the past. But technology today has so dramatically changed the future that those that are using regression analysis really are not the best performing managers today. And I find to
30:40 / 31:52
from transcript30:40 – 31:52
You've seen in President Trump's second term, you've had 615,000 new private sector jobs have been created while, again, like we talked about, over 300,000 government jobs have been cut which increases the productivity of the economy and it does what
53:59 / 55:01
from transcript53:59 – 55:01
is that CBO projects that real GDP will only grow by 2.2% this year in 2026. That's a very low assumption given that we grew by over 4% in Q3 last year and the preliminary number for Q4 was over 5%. And I think all of our predictions for GDP growth t
38:13 / 39:16
from transcript38:13 – 39:16
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