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20 results for “ai bubble”
Concept14 mentions across episodes
AI bubble
Concept13 mentions across episodes
bubble
So the far right is what I like to look at, which is public software companies added $46,000,000,000 of revenue in 2025. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their run on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that. And I think if you were
35:54 / 37:07
from transcript35:54 – 37:07
of revenue flowing from the build out of AI. So, if you assume 20% margins and a 22 times PE, that translates into 35,000,000,000,000 of new market cap. There's been about 24,000,000,000,000 of new market cap that's been pulled forward. Now we could
36:45 / 37:48
from transcript36:45 – 37:48
I think over a sufficiently long time horizon, there's no doubt that there is enormous upside. But, predicting exactly when that transfer, of the sort of risk appetite of the market's gonna occur is is is unclear. So thinking about the high entry pri
12:00 / 12:59
from transcript12:00 – 12:59
...a bubble because it's not burst yet. When it's burst yet, then you'll know it's a bubble. People often make the case, oh, AI hasn't been profitable yet, and they're spending more to make it profitable. In reality, they'll have paid off the cost of al
0:00 / 1:54
from transcript0:00 – 1:54
But before we had all these tariff related market freakouts, the freakout that everyone was focused on was DeepSeek, of course, and the idea that, oh, suddenly China has invented a low cost AI model that is very competitive with what we've seen from
17:05 / 18:16
from transcript17:05 – 18:16
I think that ultimately energy is a very big bottleneck. You know, it's a very common thing in Silicon Valley to talk about, hey, we need nuclear reactors to to flatten the duck curve so that, yeah, we can you know, we can continue to drive to, large
44:13 / 45:16
from transcript44:13 – 45:16
in the market. But, again, I don't think it's based on it isn't speculative. Right? It is just trying to understand what the market is doing. I ultimately think markets are very efficient. And so I think, you know, like, we'll rationalize, but there
44:59 / 46:02
from transcript44:59 – 46:02
the implicit assumption is the earnings from that investment are sustained over a long period of time. So maybe one could argue actually the prices should go up by less than earnings. So I won't say there's no optimism in the market. With valuations
24:35 / 25:45
from transcript24:35 – 25:45
By the way, including at higher price points. One one of the things I like about the, you know, about watching the AI wave is I the AI companies, I think, are are more creative on pricing than the SaaS companies, the consumer Internet companies were.
11:47 / 13:08
from transcript11:47 – 13:08
...the AI bubble, does that not completely denigrate those risks of an AI bubble bursting when you look at them, when you look at the improvements, when you look at Dario coming out today saying, hey. When you look at the improvements, we'll be replacin
34:24 / 35:33
from transcript34:24 – 35:33
comes from VCs. So when you, look at the entropic numbers, like, I've I've I've no idea what the percentage is. But for a fact, I know that a chunk of this is coming from Estesha and me. You know? And and a chunk of the NVIDIA revenue that everybody
47:14 / 48:20
from transcript47:14 – 48:20
AI right now, like the the average company, is not necessarily getting tremendous value out of AI. I don't presume and to say that they won't ultimately, but the the end user of what NVIDIA is creating, is not showing a lot of value, and at some poin
3:45 / 4:49
from transcript3:45 – 4:49
Faster customer acquisition, fraud reduction. Right? For big banks like JPMorgan, Generative AI, one of the huge potential payoffs is identifying serial defaulters and mortgages and credit cards and things like that. So what is interesting is the amo
25:29 / 26:31
from transcript25:29 – 26:31
Now why do we care about a 5% move for a company? Well, the company's worth 3,500,000,000,000.0, which means that 5%, Jason, is worth about a $175,000,000,000, which means that I think the market just repaid Alphabet for all of its AI work ever in a
2:14 / 3:21
from transcript2:14 – 3:21
I just so important. I said it before. I wanna say it again. That that that doesn't mean that all of these like, there isn't tons of value in all of these other areas, like, coding models, tons of value, CLI tools, tons of value. I mean, this space i
57:35 / 58:45
from transcript57:35 – 58:45
...see a bubble. They see revenue doubling every year with inference already profitable. But they also don't see the software only singularity that some predict, where AI recursively improves itself overnight. Instead, they forecast something stranger.
2:15 / 3:25
from transcript2:15 – 3:25
...a investing bubble when it comes to artificial intelligence, or are there some pockets fundamentally that still are valued at what, you know, you would believe to be, an appropriate value for the the type of company at the stage that there are? No. I
26:24 / 27:25
from transcript26:24 – 27:25
over the last two years. So sort of 100 x declines, greater than Moore's law decreased. At the same time, the models have been improving in sort of frontier capabilities by a double factor every seven months. So massive decline in the input cost at t
4:28 / 5:30
from transcript4:28 – 5:30
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