Topic
Public Markets
Public market investing strategies and market analysis.
What the experts say
“7-Eleven is today a publicly traded Japanese company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, despite being founded in Dallas, Texas, and operating the largest global retail chain in the world.”
Acquired · 8:14
Related episodes
valuation
Public
valuation
But I would push back and say that I'm Cliff Asniskamp that it's become a lot less efficient. There's less and less fundamental investors going out and actually buying and selling stocks based upon fundamentals. And not only that, Cliff won't tell...
like the duck on the pond with a lot of churn, making it a more complex issue than simply saying fundraising was flat. Well, what about returns? Returns, as I mentioned, certainly in the buyout industry, for most things that were sold were actually...
This bet is much closer to faithfully representing Warren's initial premise, that intelligent professionals with strong economic incentives to perform still cannot overcome the high fees they charge. Both the S and P 500 and North American buyouts...
However, the broad categories of private equity and richer capital gives similar exposure to The US stock market just in a different way. If you exclude absolute return and group the private equity and VC allocations into the equity bucket, and then...
of all of the stock market gains. In fact, 17 stocks drove 75% of the S and P 500 gains. But how much money can you put into that before you say to yourself, well, wait a minute. I need some diversification here. Because if 17 stocks are driving 75%...
when things go totally nut of the upside because you have no tethered evaluation. So when you're at a 20 PE, anything besides market cap should do well, I think, in the next five, ten years. So you'll see mid and small cap or value stocks....
The MAG seven is a phenomenon the way the Nifty fifty was a phenomenon. GMO, Jeremy Grantham likes to talk about mean reversion, but he's like, but I don't know how far away from the mean and I don't know when it's going to revert. That's one that...
So we're always looking at the excess expected return using the cyclically adjusted earnings yield of a stock market of The US or European stock market, using the last ten years of earnings, adjusting them for inflation, also adjusting them for...
And so can we invest in businesses at still higher than I'd probably prefer ten years ago multiples, but that are smaller businesses that managers can really add value. They can add acquisitions. They can grow the businesses. So then all of a...
If you utilize a 30% allocation to trend out of the 150% and normalize everything else, you would have generated similar returns to the leverage portfolio, but with reduced volatility and drawdowns, we don't know many endowments incorporating much...
I see private equity, and if I could make it a broader note piece on private assets in general, is on an inexorable march to be a larger and larger piece of investable pie for individuals as well as for institutions. Now, why do I say that? Let's...
the public equities lose money. And it's one of the worst sectors in that regard in terms of having the highest percentage of money losing equities of of any sector. But on the other hand, there are these massive lottery ticket positive outcomes...
They're terrific, but a lot of it is based upon following momentum and doing things like earnings revisions and other kind of pro like, short term pro cyclical movements. So there's very little of the kind of David the old David Einhorn. I'm buying...
but I will say it. I feel like the market's becoming a little less efficient in certain areas, and I'll explain it. Let's just look at the last five years and say, well, does that look efficient to you, Ted? What happened in 2020? There's all these...
business model because they think that's where most brilliant people are gonna be. Anyway, it's a curious situation. I was just gonna say, didn't Renaissance even charge much higher than that? But this the idea is, look, you if you want the best,...
So we take the earnings yield. That's a decent simple estimate of the long term real return of a broad stock market, and then we subtract the ten year real tips yield from that. That's our excess return. We compare that to the 4% that we make the...
Others see the historically strong returns of a US sixty forty portfolio. They stop there. Now there's some adventures investors will follow the path of Swincyn and diversify globally and even add some real assets like REITs and TIPS. Some may index...
So is it a coincidence that a lot of the best hedge fund track records were created from the late nineties to 2010 and then a lot of them don't look great? Or is it a difference in alpha opportunity set? If you bring it up to today, what does the...
There seems to be a fragility in markets right now. I mean, we got a story, obviously, about a week or two ago on on DeepSeek, and all of a sudden, everyone freaked out for a day, and markets tumbled. And, yeah, they rebounded. Everybody kinda, you...
And if you're starting with stocks and bonds, there's a lot of different betas you can create to have better diversification over time. And that's what he preached in this book. It was early ETFs, and you could do a REIT ETF for your real estate,...
Have a podcast?
Run your podcast through Clypt
Get ranked clips, hooks, and ready-to-post copy from your own episodes. Free to try.