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15 results for “market prediction”
So you really have to, you know, get in get in the the the habit of being an analyst, a forecaster, a prognosticator, thinking about the big trends, but also thinking about all of the competing things going on, interest rates, inflation, etcetera, th
5:08 / 6:20
from transcript5:08 – 6:20
the most important driver of stocks is that stream of cash flows, is earnings. Mhmm. And if you break those apart, the most important driver of those cash flows is usually The US economy. So we rely very heavily on Jan's forecast. So in terms of Jan'
7:26 / 8:38
from transcript7:26 – 8:38
...next prediction. My next prediction are two really important things. What this Sankey diagram looks at, which is a snapshot of the balance sheet and the health of The United States in May, misses in my opinion, two very important things that have to
59:14 / 1:00:16
from transcript59:14 – 1:00:16
...of the market like a stock as a discounted stream of future cash flows. And from that perspective, the most important driver of stocks is that stream of cash flows, is earnings. Mhmm. And if you break those apart, the most important driver of those c
6:41 / 7:47
from transcript6:41 – 7:47
So we can get a huge amount of information from what companies are telling us. We can't predict the PCE deflator better than anybody. We can't have a better model for LEI. But if trucking companies are telling you the business is taking off, then tha
19:23 / 20:32
from transcript19:23 – 20:32
Just to get a clue of where the Fed's head is and if we go back to September's economic projections, the SEP, we can see that they expect a glide path of inflation using core PCE inflation in this case that doesn't touch down until 2026. And that wou
2:05 / 3:25
from transcript2:05 – 3:25
And then of course, you know, the economy has been consumer spending's just been stronger and growth has been stronger than most forecasters, including us, have penciled in. And so there's an adjustment to the growth forecast as well. So the way it t
11:58 / 13:02
from transcript11:58 – 13:02
Lower taxes, lower regulations, GDP growth is strong, employment looks good, and at the same time, we have these mega trends that have been percolating for a decade that really seem to be bearing fruit. Right? Obviously AI being the biggest mega tren
5:52 / 7:04
from transcript5:52 – 7:04
Their perceptions of what a safety net needs to be for them, that rainy day fund is going to change, and their willingness to spend out of savings is going to change, or or even spend out of regular income. All of that would suggest less energy. That
7:22 / 8:31
from transcript7:22 – 8:31
the Challenger Greater report out today show that job cuts dropped 50% from November which was itself down about 50% from October. Give us a number for the boom. What is it gonna be? Hold on. The S and P five hundred keeps making record highs. People
14:08 / 15:18
from transcript14:08 – 15:18
state, and local level. Got it. So it's an open lane to anybody. It's an open lane. It's a political gambit that I think will work really well in '26. Very nicely done. David Sacks. Gosh. I can't imagine who you would pick as a political winner in 20
13:28 / 14:32
from transcript13:28 – 14:32
...market in 2026. Again, as long as the stock market powers along, things will be fine. If the market stumbles, we would watch as the underlying cracks would spread widely. And one area that that we've been as in the macro trends group in our newslette
10:57 / 12:15
from transcript10:57 – 12:15
...labor market and it seems it was even frothy and inflation's printing at, you know, 5%, well, then that's a very different economy in terms of where we are than today. But right now, we have an economy that's really resilient. It has proven its resil
59:15 / 1:00:17
from transcript59:15 – 1:00:17
Their incomes went up. And so there's a series of things that you are correct won't make sense in the future from a kind of standard of work perspective. But the right way to think about it is opportunity gets created. New jobs emerge, new industry,
29:59 / 31:04
from transcript29:59 – 31:04
Because for many of these things, if you wait for them to show up in the national data, you're two months behind, a quarter behind, sometimes couple weeks behind, and then there's more of a scramble. We learned, and the great financial crisis, that w
19:29 / 20:33
from transcript19:29 – 20:33
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