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19 results for “gdp reduction”
Product3 mentions across episodes
GDP
...be on GDP. Here's what the effect would be on inflation. Here's what the effect is going to be on, employment. In fact, folks like Glutnick are making the case that the current measure of GDP is probably not even correct. The way we measure it, the w
1:04:52 / 1:06:24
from transcript1:04:52 – 1:06:24
...negative GDP effect that will probably peak either the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. And that that, you know, basically, is a big drag that we're already seeing flow through to the economy.
2:08 / 3:21
from transcript2:08 – 3:21
to 2% max negative GDP effect that will probably peak either the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. And that that, you know, basically, is a big drag that we're already seeing flow through to the economy. And as a result,
3:06 / 4:07
from transcript3:06 – 4:07
...2% of GDP that would be lacking would go away, evaporate because one guy's expenditures are another guy's income, and and so it's gone.
10:35 / 11:47
from transcript10:35 – 11:47
hard for me to see this as a very weak job market. The the kinds of things people point to, like the slowing of wage growth or the vacancies over as compared to unemployment, I think are not indicative of a demand side slowdown. They're indicative of
6:45 / 7:48
from transcript6:45 – 7:48
or anybody doesn't really know how much is out there, where it's going, what terms, how how shaky some of it might be. But anyway so the point is think about it again with respect to the housing market. So we had a very strong Fed tightening a couple
31:27 / 32:35
from transcript31:27 – 32:35
...on GDP growth, it subtracted about two percentage points in 2025. And while the worst is probably behind us, they still have a one and a half percentage point drag next year. So in that sort of environment, you know, we think China will hold up okay,
44:15 / 45:16
from transcript44:15 – 45:16
Their perceptions of what a safety net needs to be for them, that rainy day fund is going to change, and their willingness to spend out of savings is going to change, or or even spend out of regular income. All of that would suggest less energy. That
7:22 / 8:31
from transcript7:22 – 8:31
Not really. No. I mean, most of the growth in employment has been in sort of what what you would call, like, acyclical industries like private education and, and health care. You know, when you look at the more cyclically sensitive areas of the job m
12:45 / 13:48
from transcript12:45 – 13:48
...GDP picture in America. So as Doge sort of slows down that money flow and as the consensus in Congress gets to a better budget, I think that you're going to see that the government was probably responsible for a 100 to a 150 basis points of just wast
1:02:59 / 1:04:04
from transcript1:02:59 – 1:04:04
But by the time we get to the end of the year, we could see the dollar strengthening positioning is kind of short dollars in our view. And same with the bond market. You know, while the market serves saying, oh my god. Last week was debating zero and
23:53 / 25:01
from transcript23:53 – 25:01
Because 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 was probably the first time in recent corporate history where companies realized that there is not an endless supply of workers out there. And so you had restaurants, like, oh, we literally can't operate, right, because
7:22 / 8:33
from transcript7:22 – 8:33
Germany's economy has essentially stopped growing since late twenty nineteen. So this isn't about whether they're in technically integrated over or under zero by some margin this quarter versus last quarter, this is looking more like a lost half deca
15:01 / 16:06
from transcript15:01 – 16:06
And because of that, businesses and households as well aren't really comfortable making big decisions. And as a consequence, the amount of energy I would have expected to see in the economy is gonna be less than and that expectation was at the beginn
4:27 / 5:33
from transcript4:27 – 5:33
way from migration restrictions, deportations, sudden stop of growth in the labor force. That's gonna give American workers more bargaining power in the short term. That's gonna create labor shortages, which put upward pressure on wages. That's going
45:00 / 45:59
from transcript45:00 – 45:59
...of GDP as of the most recently available data into the economy, which looks like we were either in a recession or coming out of one if you want a equivalent spending. And most concerning was that was increasing over the last two years. If the new adm
6:38 / 7:55
from transcript6:38 – 7:55
When you raise the prices of people and their income, at least in the short run, is the same, they're poorer, and that means they can afford less stuff, and that pushes the economy down. And so you've got higher inflation, and you've got, more, less
8:07 / 9:18
from transcript8:07 – 9:18
But let me emphasize, is that we do think, going back to the cyclical structural issue you raised, that there is cyclical recovery as our baseline. We should expect to grow probably a bit above potential this year and next year. And essentially, if y
9:42 / 10:46
from transcript9:42 – 10:46
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