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...from AI singularity to we can now scale up mass manufacturing in The US because we have a massive AI advantage is one that is troubled by a lot of political and other challenging problems. Let's talk about timelines, specifically timelines to AGI or
...only singularity that some predict, where AI recursively improves itself overnight. Instead, they forecast something stranger. A world where AI solves the Riemann hypothesis before it can reliably fold your laundry. Where 10% of current jobs vanish,
...of singularity is, like, it's a world in which, you know, human judgment is no longer really relevant because the you know, you get this self improvement loop. The AI is the AI is improving itself in a sort of race, you know, circle takeoff scenarios
...singularity is the most fascinating thing I've ever experienced. And, you know, Alex is exactly right. There is this point in time we're in right now where there's a human in the loop, contributing, but it's it's really ambiguous what part of the of
...about singularity is then surely AI just gets nationalized, because we don't need human ingenuity or innovation or entrepreneurial, entrepreneurial, expertise to drive that next wave. Really, it should belong to the people. Right. That's a great ques
...the singularity. Right? And so AGI is the is the moment where you enter the singularity, which is to say that where the world fundamentally changes. So, like, the the rules of the old world are gone. We're now operating in a new domain. And then, you
...when singularity is is reached? But there is that interesting transition that I think for me just doesn't quite add up, where a few people will have insane wealth. And it will also be utterly impossible for someone from here to hit here. And the beau
...of singularity. Now you've probably seen Ilya and, Dwarkesh, Patel's podcast, where Ilya made amazing points. And if I can rephrase what Ilya said, he basically said, it's not possible to create one machine that can do everything. And if I can rephra
...leans into the singularity idea where I think research is messy and social and largely in the data in ways that AI models can't process. But, like, what we do have today is really powerful. And these
...any kind of exponential curve. It's the singularity. Right?
...idea of the singularity came from, right, which is Ray Kurzweil and Bertrand Binge, they're they're like, at some point, you get this kind of, you know, point of of no return, which is like a a a utopian point of no return. But then, of course, the f
...Right? And so AGI is the is the moment where you enter the singularity, which is to say that where the world fundamentally changes. So, like, the the rules of the old world are gone. We're now operating in a new domain. And then, you know, the kind o
...when singularity happens. Because actually, you say a few people will hold an insane level of power, control, and wealth.
...this, singularity hits until superintelligence starts to take off? What's your what's your prediction? Yeah. I guess I mostly defer to the superforecasters here. Like, the AI 2027 report is probably the best one right now. Although ironically, their
...of the singularity that I think is still with us that eventually, we'll invent a brain that's so powerful that it just, like, we don't we're we're we're making ourselves obsolete. They're just we're we're inventing this brain that's gonna do all the
...it's, this is sing Singularity World here,
So it looks like a really fast slope, and then we're gonna just take more steps. So, like, this is really unsettling when you have these big steps. And I expect that to keep happening. I see I've tried OpenAI operator. I've tried cloud computer use.
...get, like, singularity. So I'm a little bit skeptical of that claim. You know, we'll see. Would Sam say he could do it in 2028? I mean, I guess we'll see in I I think all those claims tend to be like recruiting ideas as opposed to actual predictions.
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